The Golf Jock

It’s not easy making preseason predicitons. I tried it with the NFL this year. I predicted the San Diego Chargers would make it to the Super Bowl for the AFC and that Dallas would make it from the NFC. San Diego squeaked into the playoffs and couldn’t get past the second round. Dallas self-desturcted and didn’t even make the playoffs. With the NFL, there are only 32 teams to pick from, and it is hard. With the PGA Tour, there are around 200 golfers worldwide to pick from.

Now if you are just going by World Golf Ranking, the picking gets a little easier. Pick TIger at #1 and you are set. Even if he doesn’t play a single tournament in 2009, he would probably still hang on to that ranking. That’s because the World Golf rankings are designed to reward excellent play over a 2 year period of time. Guys who have one or two hot weeks each year don’t get the same kind of bump that grinders like Jim Furyk get — guys who always seem to be in the hunt, especially on tough course under severe conditions and against top competitors.

Okay, so I’m really beating around the bush here, I know. It’s just that I wanted to give myself plenty of “outs” before I put my reputation on the line and start naming names. But here goes.

Some of the guys to watch in 2009 became a little more familiar during the 2008 Ryder Cup. I think Anthony Kim is by far the one to keep your eye on the most. He came in to the tour without a lot of hype, but quickly showed that his game was rock solid. His single-plane swing is pretty to watch and his intensity and competitiveness are things you just can’t teach. I expect Anthony to win at least once in 2009, and maybe even 2 or 3 times.

Another Ryder Cup guy to watch is Hunter Mahan. He is a different kind of player than Kim, but the clutch shots and putts he made at the Ryder Cup should give him the confidence he needs to have a breakout year in 2009.

Camilo Villegas is another favorite of mine. Although you could say that 2008 was his breakout year, I think we are only going to see more of the same in 2009. Camilo is one of the most fit guys on tour, and that helps him survive the grind of the PGA tour. His game has really progressed nicely and at 22, he is just starting to understand some of the courses they play on a yearly basis. Having moved from 56th in the World rankings to #7 in 2008, it would seem hard to improve on that.  He may not get the consecutive vicotories in 2009 like he did at the BMW and the Tour championship. But I do expect Villegas to make a return to the winners circle somewhere in 2009, and I wouldn’t be even be surprised if it were at a major.

Sergio Garcia has been on many lists like this in the past, but never on mine. Why my change of heart? I saw a maturing Sergio in 2008. His game is as good as it’s ever going to get as a “feel player,” but that’s never been Sergio’s problem. He just hasn’t been able to handle the pressure of being the guy that was supposed to challenge Tiger. That rivalry never panned out. Oh yeah, Sergio can win occasionally in exhibitions at the Bighorn, but overall, Sergio has never even been in Tiger’s radar as far a threat to his throne. I don’t think Sergio will ever be that guy, but in 2008, I think Sergio finally figured that out too, and I believe it was liberating for him. He seemed at peace with his swing and his game, and even with some heart-breaking losses down the stretch. If not for Vijay’s fantastic finish to 2008, Sergio easily would have been the guy everyone was talking about during the FedEx cup. Look for the maturity and solid play to continue for Sergio in 2009.

My final pick is not an individual player, but I predict that one of the Australian boys will be a force to reckon with in 2009. They’ve all shown some real talent and moxie in the last 5 years - guys like Geoff Ogilvy, Adam Scott, Aaron Baddelley and Rod Pamperin have made some serious impacts on the PGA Tour. But none of them has had a sustained run where the rest of the field was worried about their presence. Look for that to change in 2009. Ogilvy could be the guy with his early season win at the Mercedes in Hawaii, but it could be any of the others too.

Will there be another Rocco Mediate in 2009? You know - a journeyman golfer who’s been around for a long time who suddenly has a phenomenal run and threatens to wrest a major away from destiny? Probably. It’s happened many times in the past. I have no idea who it might be this year, although Tommy Armour III was looking pretty darn good in 2008. I’d nominate him if I had to pick someone.

At the end of the year I’m sure I will look back and make all kinds of excuses for my predictions, but I’m sure the half-dozen men I mentioned today hope I’m spot on with my forecast. Only time will tell.